- Last week the S&P 500 and NASDAQ had their best weekly performances since March. The NASDAQ gained over 3% and the S&P just under 3%. It was the eighth positive week in a row for the NASDAQ and the fifth in a row for the S&P. The NASDAQ is up nearly 14% over the past eight weeks.1
- As for performance last week1:
- The over-all global equity market was up over 2% last week.
- Once again, large caps led the charge in the US, but market breadth is still improving with growth, value, and small caps also performing well.
- Commodities had a very strong week at over 4%, driving their returns positive for the quarter.
- Bonds returns were essentially flat and are up just over 2% on the year.
- According to Old Mission, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft make up 80% of the S&P 500’s gains so far in 2023.
- In terms of investment flows, Value funds just had their worst month ever.
- As for key interest rates last week:
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast Tool is setting estimated Q2 2023 GDP at 1.8% (down 0.4% from last week), as of 6/15/2023.
- The economic data calendar last week was jammed pack:
- CPI and Core CPI came out in line with expectations. Though in line and with headline inflation at 4%, Core CPI remains elevated at over 5%. Housing rents were once again the main driver of inflation for the month, according to First Trust.
- PPI, however, came in below expectations. Core PPI also was on the rise last month, led by the services sector.
- Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
- Retail Sales
- Here is the economic data calendar for this week:
- The Federal Reserve’s next meeting is July 26th. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is currently pricing a 75% chance that the Fed increases the FF rates to 5.25-5.50% (from 5.00-5.25%).
Crypto Corner with Grant Engelbart, CFA, CAIA, Senior Portfolio Manager
- Cryptocurrency prices were mixed last week, as Bitcoin rose 2.3% to just over $26,000. Ethereum fell slightly, down less than 1% to near $1,700. Prices were mostly lower on the week until jumping higher on Friday, possibly related to the crypto-friendly-mayor of Miami Francis Suarez announcing a presidential bid. 2
- A federal court ordered the SEC to respond to Coinbase’s 2022 petition for rulemaking, which the SEC replied by saying they haven’t decided what to do. A federal judge also denied the SEC a request to freeze BinanceUS’s assets. Many coins – especially those deemed securities – remain significantly below their all-time highs (as shown in chart below).
- Blackrock made a splash last week, filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF – a feat that has yet to be approved in the US despite numerous attempts. This particular filing includes a ‘surveillance-share agreement’ with NASDAQ to monitor for potential market manipulation, one of the SECs largest stated fears around a spot product. Perhaps the world’s largest asset manager will have better luck.
ATH = “All-time high”. Data as of 6/5/23
- “The fact that people are fallible is your biggest enduring advantage in the accumulation of greater wealth. The fact that you are just as fallible is the biggest impediment to that very same goal.” Dr. Daniel Crosby.
- On this week’s Orion's The Weighing Machine podcast, Rusty Vanneman and Robyn Murray talk with Mike Singleton, Senior Analyst and Principal at Invictus Research. Providing institutional-grade macroeconomic research to a wide range of clients, Mike talks about his outlook for the macro-economy, what that means for the market, and his technical analysis of the market price movement. He also speaks about how investors should consider asset allocation, stock bonds, real assets, and cash when building their portfolios. Listen here: Orion's The Weighing Machine.
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- Michael Kitces summer book reading list for financial advisors.
- Who are the greatest investors of all-time? Another Top 10 List.