It was another nice week for investors last week. Global equity prices were higher again by nearly 2%. Global equities have now recovered recent losses and are back to positive for the quarter and are higher by about 8% for the year. Interest rates were basically unchanged on the week and the overall bond market eked out a slight gain. Commodities also ripped higher and were up nearly 2%. Commodities remain the leader across major asset classes this quarter. All in all, it was a solid week for diversified multi-asset portfolios. As for economic data, it was a bit of a slower week. One notable event last week was that consumer inflation expectations did hit their highest levels in thirty years. Some good news, however, is that the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed is projecting 2Q24 GDP to be 4.2%. That’s impressive. For a frame of reference, the average GDP growth rate over the last 20 years is 2.0%.
As for this week, it is a big one for the economic calendar with inflation, retail sales, and housing data (among others) being released. The Consumer Price Index will be released Wednesday. The headline CPI number is expected to be 3.4%, with core CPI (ex-food and energy) expected to be 3.6%. Earnings season for 1Q24 is also winding down. Key earnings reports this week include Walmart, Home Depot and Alibaba. According to Factset (as of May 10th), the blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is currently 5.4%. If this number holds, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q2 2022.
Moving ahead, while the trend in the stock market remains bullish, it is interesting to see some of the market leaders of late. For example, both utilities and consumer staples hit new 52-week highs last week. These are typically considered defensive sectors which tend to outperform when the stock market is weak. Also notable is the relative weakness in semiconductors. This technology industry tends to be a leading indicator of economic and market strength. Given this market action, plus the strength in the gold market, one might guess that stock prices and bond yields were moving sharply lower. That, however, has thankfully not been the case.
Either way:
Stay invested. Stay diversified. Stay disciplined.
If you have any questions or comments, please let us know at strategists@brinkercapital.com or at rusty@orion.com. Thank you for your time and trust. See you next week!