- Last Week: Another good week for stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin. The latest employment numbers also came in above expectations, though the unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.2% near its highest level during this economic cycle.
- Looking Ahead: This is an important week for inflation reports which in turn could influence the Fed’s decision to cut rates at their December 18th meeting. Most likely the Fed will cut rates.
- 2025 Market Outlooks: Despite the largest surge in Wall Street strategist optimism ever, significant adjustments are usually unnecessary for portfolios that are already well-constructed and aligned with goals.
Looking Back at Last Week
Last week, the S&P 500 extended its winning streak to three weeks, led by strong gains in technology stocks, with many of the "Magnificent 7" reaching new highs. The bond market also advanced, as yields continued their recent decline. The 10-year Treasury yield—a critical benchmark for the markets—ended the week near 4.1%, down from over 4.5% just weeks ago. Falling yields are generally favorable for both the economy and financial markets. Bitcoin also made headlines, surpassing $100,000 for the first time, now doubling its value from $50,000 just last summer.
In economic news, November employment numbers slightly exceeded expectations, rebounding from hurricane and labor-strike disruptions in October. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, nearing a cycle high of 4.3%. Economists were divided interpreting this data, underscoring the importance of this week’s inflation reports. With the Federal Reserve signaling cautious optimism but maintaining concerns about inflation, these inflation reports could influence the Fed’s policy decisions at its December 18 meeting.
Looking Ahead This Week
This week’s spotlight is inflation data, starting with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. For headline CPI, the expectation coming into the week is for a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.6% last month. Removing food and energy costs, to arrive at a more stable core inflation number, the year-over-year growth expectation is 3.3%, which was the same level as last month. The next Federal Reserve meeting is on December 18th, and while the current market expectations still call for another interest rate cut to the Fed’s short-term interest rate down to 4.25-4.50%, this week’s inflation indicators will likely refine expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Market Outlooks for 2025
As year-end approaches, Wall Street Strategist stock market projections for 2025 are rolling in. What should investors make of these forecasts? Assuming your portfolio is well-constructed and aligned with your goals, significant adjustments are usually unnecessary. Over time, portfolios may naturally reduce risk as investors age, but sweeping changes are typically only required if your financial objectives or risk tolerance change.
Two observations on the strategist 2025 outlooks stand out though:
- While typically many projections suggest an 8-10% return for stocks, history shows the market rarely delivers returns within that range. Instead, it tends to be either up by double digits or down significantly in any given year. This highlights the market’s inherent volatility.
- Wall Street strategists are exceptionally optimistic about 2025, projecting a 20% increase in U.S. stock market targets compared to 2024, and 11% above where the S&P 500 is now. This is the largest surge in strategist optimism on record since 2000.
The takeaway? Stay invested, stay diversified, and stay disciplined. As we have noted before, cautious optimism is warranted, balancing the opportunities of a strong market with the potential risks of sentiment-driven volatility. If you have any questions or comments, please let us know at strategists@brinkercapital.com or at rusty@orion.com. Thank you for your time and trust, and we will be back next week with another update.