People moving across international borders has long been a defining characteristic of human society, shaping cultures, economies, and societies in multifaceted ways. As economic growth is closely connected to immigration, highlighting the potential benefits of a dynamic workforce, discussions on immigration and its impact on the economy and financial markets provide valuable insights for investors and financial advisors.
In this episode, Rusty talks with Donald Rissmiller, Chief Economist at Strategas. Don has directed the firm's economic research efforts since 2006. He oversees Strategas' thematic research as well as high-frequency econometric forecasting. Don is frequently quoted in the financial press, and his research has been consistently recognized by Institutional Investor magazine in its annual All-America Research Survey.
Don joins Rusty to talk about the potential impact of immigration on the economy and financial markets. They explore the connection between immigration and economic growth, the current state of the labor market, and the implications for inflation and interest rates. In addition, Don shares his insights on potential scenarios and risks related to immigration.
Key Takeaways
[01:56] - Don's professional background.
[02:41] - How Don defines risk.
[06:22] - The connection between immigration and the economy.
[08:49] - Don's assessment of the current labor market situation.
[09:53] - Don's assessment of inflation, the federal reserve, and interest rates.
[12:39] - Expectations for economic growth and corporate earnings growth.
[15:00] - Other things advisors and investors should consider regarding the economy.
[19:04] - Unique considerations that make the current business cycle different.
[23:48] - Rusty's base case scenario and Don's opinion on it.
[26:00] - Rusty's good case scenario and Don's response to it.
[28:17] - Rusty's bad case scenario and what Don has to say about it.
[30:10] - Other risks investors should be thinking about.
Quotes
[07:19] - "If we think about population or workforce growth coming domestically or through immigration, that, in the long run, will help support potential GDP growth." ~ Donald Rissmiller
[07:34] - "Having a dynamic economy could create better productivity growth, exchange of ideas, greater innovation, and greater invention." ~ Donald Rissmiller
[09:22] - "The domestic labor market is very strong, even leaning towards overheating at the moment. Because it's creating wage pressures, which are showing up in average hourly earnings, the employment cost index, and other wage measures." ~ Donald Rissmiller
Links
Donald Rissmiller on LinkedIn
Donald Rissmiller on Twitter
Strategas
The Planet Suite, Op.32: Jupiter
Jason Trennert
Nicholas Bohnsack
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Disclosure
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.
2858-OAT-10/17/2023
