We hope this note finds you well.
We wanted to share the Orion Asset Allocation Committee’s thoughts on the ongoing war in the Middle East.
If we consider the first and second Gulf Wars as corollaries to today’s conflict, equity markets should be biased lower and oil prices should be biased higher over the near-term. However, as we move to and through the peak of the conflict, stock prices should find a bottom and move higher, and oil prices should find a ceiling and move lower. We speak to that potential outcome in the attached note. If you have any questions about, or would like to discuss, our thinking on the situation in Iran, please reach out to your salesperson. We would be happy to speak with you.
We hope that peace comes to the Middle East soon. We lament the loss of innocent life in this conflict, pray for our troops in harm’s way and mourn those U.S. servicemembers who have lost their lives.