- Market volatility persisted last week, with the S&P 500 posting its worst decline since September and the NASDAQ entering a correction, largely driven by economic policy uncertainty and signs of a softening labor market.
- Diversification proved valuable as commodities and international equities outperformed, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar and rotation away from mega-cap tech stocks, reinforcing the importance of patience and long-term investment discipline.
- Key inflation data (CPI and PPI) this week will help shape expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Looking Back
Markets faced a rough patch last week, with volatility testing investor patience. While short-term setbacks can be unsettling, they are a natural part of investing. Last week the S&P 500 experienced its worst weekly loss since September, down over 3%. This marks the third consecutive week of declines, while the NASDAQ officially entered a correction, down over 10% from its recent highs.
A leading factor of the recent pullback remains uncertainty stemming from Washington, D.C.. Economic policy uncertainty reached record levels last week, the highest in data going back to 1997. While investor sentiment has weakened, economic data largely met expectations, suggesting that fundamentals remain mostly intact.
One of the most closely watched reports last week was the February employment report. Job growth of 150,000 and a 4.1% unemployment rate were in line with expectations. However, early signs of “labor cracks” are appearing, with civilian employment dropping by 588,000. While this suggests a softening labor market, it also raises the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may act sooner and more aggressively in cutting short-term interest rates.
While U.S. markets struggled, diversification once again demonstrated its value. Commodities gained 2% last week and are now up nearly 7% for the year. International equities also posted strong gains, with the MSCI EAFE index now up nearly 11% year-to-date. The recent pullback in U.S. mega-cap tech stocks and a weaker U.S. dollar have helped boost returns overseas. This is a reminder of why broad diversification matters—it helps reduce overall portfolio volatility and capture opportunities beyond the U.S. market.
Looking Ahead:
This week, news out of Washington D.C. will continue to take center stage. As for economic data this coming week, inflation data takes top billing with the CPI and PPI releases. A softer-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which may provide a tailwind for both equities and fixed income markets. On the other hand, if inflation remains stubborn, markets may need to adjust their rate cut expectations. Either way, long-term investors should remain patient—markets tend to anticipate policy shifts well before they happen.
Another key release to watch is the preliminary March consumer sentiment index. Improving sentiment would be a welcome signal, particularly as lower inflation and potential Fed rate cuts should bolster consumer confidence in the months ahead.
Final Thoughts:
Market volatility can feel unsettling, but it is important to stay focused on the bigger picture. Long-term investors who stay invested, stay diversified, and stay disciplined are often rewarded over time. Instead of reacting to short-term noise, trust in your strategy and the principles that have guided successful investors through past cycles.
- Stay invested to benefit from market recoveries.
- Stay diversified to manage risk.
- Stay disciplined and avoid emotional decision-making.
if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us at strategists@brinkercapital.com or at rusty@orion.com. Thank you for your time and trust.