We believe the 60/40 – or balanced – strategy is more relevant than ever given today’s challenges, for several reasons.
First, despite near-term volatility, equities remain a key component of building long-term wealth. Several durable growth themes – innovation in AI and healthcare, growth in the digital economy, and the electrification of the economy – continue to present solid opportunities for earnings growth and capital appreciation.
On the fixed income side, following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes in 2022–2023, bond yields are now significantly higher than they were during the ultra-low-rate era. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, for example, hover around 4%–5% in 2025, offering a more attractive income stream than just a few years ago. Higher yields also increase bonds’ potential to act as a ballast during equity market drawdowns.
Crucially, correlation between stocks and bonds is reverting. Bonds have historically had a negative or low correlation to equities in times of stock market stress. But in 2022, the positive correlation between bonds and equities undermined the diversification benefits of the 60/40 mix when both asset classes fell significantly. This was due to the sharp rise in inflation that forced central banks to hike rates rapidly. With inflation moderating and interest rates now stabilizing, the inverse relationship has reasserted itself, and that helps boost the strategy’s risk-adjusted performance potential.