The Weekly Wire: From Small Cap Surges to Inflation Reports – Key Takeaways from a Historic Week

Last week was historic on Wall Street and in U.S. politics. For this report, we'll focus on the notable economic and market developments.

Regarding the stock market, last Thursday was remarkable. Small-cap stocks outperformed mega-cap stocks by nearly 6%. For context, small-cap stocks represent about two-thirds of the actual names in the overall stock market but only about 10% of the total market cap. Mega-cap stocks, generally considered the fifty largest names by market cap, make up nearly 60% of the overall market cap. Additionally, small caps outperformed the NASDAQ 100 (an imperfect proxy of growth stocks) by nearly 6%. Such significant reversion to the mean trades is rarely seen. On this point, according to Bespoke Investments, the twelve largest stocks lost just under 3% last Thursday after gaining 22% since 3/31/24. In contrast, all other stocks gained nearly 2% last Thursday after losing nearly 4% since 3/31/24. Could last week finally be an inflection point for smaller companies to finally start outperforming?

The catalyst for this was June's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed a year-over-year growth rate of 3.0% and a monthly decline for the first time since mid-2020. This marked the slowest year-over-year growth rate since 2021, leading markets to anticipate sooner rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Expectations for rate cuts by September sharply increased to a 94% probability. However, the next day, the June Producer Price Index (PPI) report surprised to the upside, showing its highest 12-month increase since early 2023. PPI is often a leading indicator of CPI, with some component’s key inputs into the Fed’s favored inflation indicator, the core PCE index. Additionally, the University of Michigan sentiment survey last week actually showed a sharp increase in inflation expectations, particularly for the next five years.

This week, corporate earnings season is back in full swing, with key AI sector companies reporting later in the week. Given the significant investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence this year, these reports could be market moving. Although it is early in earnings season, with only 5% of companies having reported by last Friday, the current blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 9.3%. If this rate holds, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q1 2022 (9.4%).

This earnings season will be crucial. Positive momentum is needed to sustain a bullish tailwind for stocks. We've had five consecutive quarters of improving growth, and this quarter could extend that streak. This is critical for the overall stock market, especially for small companies. Typically, small caps perform better when the economy is growing. Lower interest rates help with financing costs, but growth is a more important factor for their absolute and relative performance.

Economic data is light this week, with June Retail Sales being reported on Tuesday. Politics will be a top story all week as the Republican National Convention begins.

In summary:

Stay invested. Stay diversified. Stay disciplined.

If you have any questions or comments, please let us know at strategists@brinkercapital.com or at rusty@orion.com. Thank you for your time and trust. See you next week!

Key Data

Stocks, Bonds, Alternatives, & Real Assets as of July 12, 2024

Source: Morningstar

The TV Benchmark represents an average of the S&P 500, Dow Jones IA, and NASDAQ 100 return indexes. The Orion Risk Score represents risk relative to the global equity market.

Interest Rates as of July 12, 2024

Sources: Yahoo Finance, S&P Global, Crane Data, BankRate

Key Economic Data Last Week

Sources: MarketWatch, First Trust

Key Economic Data This Week

Source: MarketWatch