- Strong Market Performance: The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, with a 3% gain for the week, marking the best first week of a presidential term in 40 years.
- Key Drivers from Washington: Technology stocks surged on announcements of major AI investments, while market sentiment benefited from reduced tariff concerns and optimistic presidential comments.
- Looking Ahead: Another potentially pivotal week lies ahead with over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, including four of the Magnificent Seven, alongside key economic data and the Fed's monetary policy update.
Looking Back to Last Week
It was a good week for the stock market. The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, and we witnessed the best first week for the stock market in a new presidential term in 40 years. As many anticipated, newly announced policy measures from the President significantly influenced financial headlines and market activity—and this theme is likely to continue in the weeks and months ahead.
For the week, the U.S. stock market rose about 2% during a holiday-shortened four-day trading period. Washington played a notable role in driving market sentiment. Fears over massive tariffs have yet to materialize, which has provided some relief. The President’s announcement of a major private-sector investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure boosted technology stocks, adding fuel to the sector’s ongoing rally. Additionally, comments from the President at Davos suggesting he would "demand interest rate cuts once oil prices drop" were received positively, though executing such measures might be easier said than done. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield edged slightly higher, finishing the week at 4.63%.
Looking Ahead to This Week
This week promises to be action-packed, offering a wealth of opportunities to assess the pulse of the markets and economy. That said, the week is expected to start on a negative note, as U.S. technology firms plunged in premarket trading Monday morning following concerns sparked by the Chinese startup DeepSeek. The company’s rapid development—completed in just two months at a cost of supposedly under $6 million—has raised questions about the massive investments big tech companies have been making in AI models and data centers, triggering a sell-off over fears of competitiveness in AI and America’s lead in the sector.
Over one hundred members of the S&P 500 are set to report earnings, including four of the Magnificent Seven—Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla. These heavyweights have been instrumental in driving the market's performance, and their results will likely set the tone for the week. Earnings for the Magnificent Seven are expected to grow an impressive 22% year over year in the fourth quarter, compared to sub-10% growth for the rest of the S&P 500. The earnings season is off to a strong start overall, with year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 tracking at 13%. While it is still early, this positive momentum offers a hopeful signal for the broader market.
On the economic front, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, but investors will be closely watching Fed Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the path forward in 2025.
Key economic data releases this week will further shape market expectations. Fourth-quarter GDP is expected to grow 2.6%, though the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model suggests a more optimistic 3.0%. If realized, such an upside surprise would echo the resilience we saw in the economy last year—a major driver of the stock market’s strong performance. Additionally, the Core PCE inflation report will be released, with economists projecting a steady 2.8% year-over-year increase.
Closing Thoughts
The week ahead will be pivotal, filled with opportunities to gain clarity on corporate performance and economic conditions. While challenges remain, there’s reason for cautious optimism. Strong earnings growth, resilient economic data, and a constructive tone from policymakers could continue to support the market’s upward trajectory. Nonetheless, the road to growth is usually bumpy. As always, we believe that staying invested, diversified, and disciplined is the most reliable way to achieve long-term financial goals.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out at strategists@brinkercapital.com or at rusty@orion.com. Thank you for your time and trust.