- Markets Struggle Amid Rising Rates: Equity markets declined for a second straight week, driven by strong labor market data that pushed long-term Treasury yields nearer to multi-decade highs and shifted expectations regarding potential Federal Reserve rate moves in 2025.
- Robust Labor Market Signals Resilience: December’s non-farm payrolls rose by 256,000, far surpassing expectations, while unemployment ticked down to 4.1%, reinforcing the strength of the U.S. labor market despite higher interest rates.
- Looking Ahead: Inflation and Earnings in Focus: This week’s inflation data (CPI and PPI) and financial sector earnings will be pivotal, with consensus expecting nearly 10% year-over-year earnings growth—the highest since Q2 2022.
- Our thoughts and prayers are with all those who have been, and continue to be, impacted by the fires in Southern California.
Looking Back to Last Week
Can the stock market’s bull market withstand a strong labor market and rising rates? Last week tested this balance, with equity markets slipping into the red for the year. Equity markets lost ground for the second consecutive week, with sharp losses on Friday pushing year-to-date performance into negative territory. Large-cap growth stocks led the decline, although small-cap stocks were not far behind. These losses were driven by stronger-than-expected labor market data, which has shifted market expectations regarding potential Fed policy. Some investors are now even contemplating the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes instead of the anticipated cuts in 2025.
Long-term interest rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, climbed to their highest levels since November 2023, nearing two-decade highs. The rising rates also contributed to U.S. dollar strength, as it appreciated against all major currencies. Oil prices also rose sharply after the U.S. imposed its most significant sanctions on Russia’s energy sector since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, pushing crude oil to a three-month high. For the week, commodities gained 4%, bringing their year-over-year increase to nearly 11%.
Friday’s employment data underscored the labor market’s resilience. Non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, well above the consensus estimate of 165,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, and this economic cycle’s unemployment rate high was revised downward from 4.3% to 4.2%. Year-over-year average hourly earnings are now at 3.9%. Thursday’s initial unemployment claims, which hit an 11-month low, further validated this strength. While robust labor data and rising yields reflect economic strength, they may also keep inflationary pressures alive, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward.
Looking Ahead to This Week
This week’s focus is on inflation, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) set to be released on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. Market expectations are for a 2.7% increase in headline CPI and 3.3% for core inflation, excluding food and energy.
Additionally, the fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest, with notable reports expected from major financial firms, including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock. Overall, consensus expectations point to nearly 10% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P in the fourth quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2022. Given recent positive economic momentum and how earnings tend to play out anyway, it is a reasonable expectation that earnings growth will surprise to the upside.
Focusing on Fundamentals
As always, it is essential to keep an eye on market fundamentals, particularly earnings. Over time, stock prices are driven by earnings growth and how much investors are willing to pay for that growth.
Looking ahead, how might these fundamentals shape expectations for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025? Assuming S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) reach current projections of $275 by the end of 2025, and the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio expands slightly from 22x to 23x, the index could climb to approximately 6,325. That represents a price return of around 8%. Adding the S&P 500’s 1.3% dividend yield at the start of the year, the total return for 2025 could approach 10%—a solid result in any market environment.
Final Thoughts
The path to another positive year for the stock market exists, but it is unlikely to be a smooth ride. Surprises always come up. Despite the inevitable market bumps, we believe that staying invested, diversified, and disciplined remains the surest way to achieve long-term financial goals.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out at strategists@brinkercapital.com or at rusty@orion.com. Thank you for your time and trust.