The Weekly Wire: Post-Election Market Rally: Highlights and Insights for Investors

Last week was the best of the year for the stock market, driven by the end of election season, which relieved concerns of contested results. With that uncertainty lifted, the S&P 500 enjoyed its best post-election trading day ever and strongest day since November 2022. All three major indices—the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and DJIA—gained about 5%, reaching new all-time highs. Small-cap stocks also saw their best day in two years and the best week since April 2020, drawing close to previous highs. Value investing also had its best day in four years, though growth stocks led the way, thanks in part to Tesla’s impressive 30% weekly gain. In short, the bullish trends in the markets continue. 

In other markets, the 10-year Treasury yield initially spiked post-election to 4.5% but eased to end the week at 4.3%. Meanwhile, non-U.S. stocks gained, though not nearly as much as U.S. stocks, partly due to a stronger dollar. Bitcoin also surged, reaching new highs with a 12% weekly gain. Those strong gains continued over the weekend and into the new week.

Election coverage dominated headlines, but economic data brought good news. Reported corporate earnings growth for the third quarter hit 5.3% year-over-year, while fourth-quarter GDP expectations rose to 2.5%. Adding to the upbeat tone, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter point to 4.50%-4.75%, making borrowing cheaper and potentially supporting growth.

Geopolitical news will likely continue to dominate headlines this week. Key inflation data is also set for release, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports expected. The CPI headline number is forecasted to rise to 2.6%, up from 2.4% last month, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to remain steady at 3.3% year-over-year.

Today’s economic backdrop is different from 2016, when Trump was first elected. The economy is stronger, interest rates are higher, and stock market valuations are also at elevated levels, suggesting a potential for more modest returns ahead. Opinions on future growth are mixed on Wall Street. The pro-growth camp points to potential benefits from lower taxes and lighter regulation. Meanwhile, others are concerned about the impact of tariffs and potentially higher inflation and rising interest rates. On the inflation front, “reflation” is the buzzword, with expectations that tax cuts, continued deficit spending, and broad-based tariffs could contribute to increased inflationary pressures.
 

Bottom line, the best course is to...

Stay invested. Stay diversified. Stay disciplined.

If you have any questions or comments, please let us know at strategists@brinkercapital.com or at rusty@orion.com. Thank you for your time and trust. See you next week!

Key Data

Stocks, Bonds, Alternatives, and Real Assets as of November 8, 2024

Source: Morningstar

The TV Benchmark represents an average of the S&P 500, Dow Jones IA, and NASDAQ 100 return indexes. The Orion Risk Score represents risk relative to the global equity market.

Interest Rates as of November 8, 2024

Sources: Yahoo Finance, S&P Global, Crane Data, BankRate

Key Economic Data Last Week

Source: MarketWatch,  First Trust

Key Economic Data This Week

Source: MarketWatch