- Stock Market Recap: The Santa Claus rally failed to appear, with a slight market decline last week, though Friday's rebound provided optimism heading into the new week.
- This Week: This week’s focus shifts to the monthly jobs report and its implications for the Fed’s rate policy. The New York Stock Exchange will be closed Thursday to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter.
- Banner Year: All major asset classes posted gains in 2024, led by U.S. large-cap growth stocks. Diversifying asset classes also performed well, with Global Credit, Alternatives and Real Assets all outperforming Core Fixed Income.
Looking Back to Last Week
The Santa Claus rally did not materialize this year, with the stock market ending slightly lower last week. However, Friday’s strong gains broke a four-day losing streak, offering a glimmer of optimism as we enter the new week.
Some view year-end and early-year market performance as a potential indicator for the full year. History shows a mixed record on this. Just consider the recent example that the stock market has ended the year with a loss and started the year with one for three straight years now, but the S&P still gained over 20% in both 2023 and 2024. A lesson? Short-term performance does not always dictate long-term outcomes.
Last week’s shortened trading week brought light but encouraging economic data. Initial jobless claims came in below expectations, and the ISM Manufacturing Index exceeded forecasts—both signaling continued resilience in the economy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently projects Q4 GDP growth at 2.4%, slightly above the 20-year GDP average of 2.0%.
Looking Ahead to This Week
This will be another holiday-shortened week as the New York Stock Exchange will be closed Thursday to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter.
This week’s economic highlight is Friday’s jobs report, delayed a week due to the holiday schedule. Expectations are for payroll growth of 155,000, down from November’s 227,000, with the unemployment rate expected to be 4.2%. While the labor market continues to show growth, the pace is moderating—a critical factor for the Fed as it prepares for its late-January meeting. For now, rate cuts seem unlikely.
Tech stocks could also take center stage, with Nvidia presenting at the Consumer Electronics Show starting Monday. While NVDA has been flat since November, it is up 150% for 2024, demonstrating its leadership in AI and tech.
Other markets to watch include crude oil prices, the US dollar, and interest rates. All have been rising of late, which all else being equal, are headwinds for the stock market.
A Good Year for Investors
Performance reports for 2024 are rolling in, and investors should be pleased. 2024 was an exceptional year across asset classes. U.S. large-cap growth stocks led the way, driven by household names like Nvidia. International equities and core fixed income also delivered gains. Diversifying asset classes performed well, with global credit, alternatives, and real assets outperforming traditional bonds. High-volatility alternatives and cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, also shined. Remarkably, both the S&P 500 and gold both gained over 25% in 2024—the first time in history this has occurred—with gold slightly edging out equities.
Final Thoughts
Bottom line: Stay invested, stay diversified, and stay disciplined. 2024 was a banner year for balanced, diversified portfolios. Challenges will undoubtedly arise in 2025, but so will opportunities for those with a long-term perspective. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out at strategists@brinkercapital.com or at rusty@orion.com. Here is to a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year. Thank you for your time and trust. We will be back next week with another update. Happy New Year!