We try to construct these weekly pieces as narrative or mini-narrative essays. This week we are taking a different approach, simply listing the reasons why we think a US recession isn’t pre-ordained. Before we get to those reasons, we would point out that since 1980, the US economy has been in recession just 13% of the time, and that the yield on the US 10 Year Note has come in by about 40bps, a possible sign the market is increasingly confident the Fed will win the battle against inflation (see chart).


  • Corporate America, the US consumer is in fantastic financial shape
  • Companies hold $7 trillion in cash; excess household savings total $2 trillion
  • The labor market is exceptionally strong – sub 4% unemployment rate
  • Home prices are at an all-time high; record tappable equity
  • Some inflation data points appear to have peaked/have rolled over
  • No signs of meaningful sector or industry imbalance
  • Credit conditions aren’t overly tight
  • Recession call seems the consensus on Wall Street


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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Brinker Capital Investments, LLC, a registered investment advisor. 1120-BCI-6/27/2022