The Election and Your Money

In this episode of the Standard Deviations podcast, Orion’s Chief Behavioral Officer Dr. Daniel Crosby and Orion OCIO Chief Investment Officer Tim Holland discuss U.S. elections and the markets, including how stocks tend to perform throughout a president’s term, why control of Congress is as important as control of the White House when it comes to making policy, and how too often investors let their political leanings influence their portfolio construction decisions. And while the episode was recorded prior to President Biden stepping away from the race, the insights and perspective offered up are still quite relevant and should prove helpful as we all try to navigate what is likely to be a stressful few months.

Tune in to hear:

[02:20]: How should we think about the “presidential election cycle pattern” as a forecasting tool? Does it have much merit and how is it playing out so far in 2024?

[06:25]: How should we think about how markets tend to trade during an election year?  Is there a seasonal pattern, and if so, is it holding in 2024?

[12:50]: What would Tim tell clients who want to invest based on their political views?

[17:46]: Research has found that when investors’ political candidate of choice is not elected, they invest more internationally and are less bullish on the US. In addition, they are more averse to risk for that period of time and that there is a 2.7, annualized, under performance for those investors. What does Tim think about these findings? 

[21:32]: Why is having a contentious Congress potentially not that bad?

[28:00]: What is Tim’s counsel for those worried about the 2024 election, as it relates to investing?