Last week the S&P 500 closed higher for the seventh straight week, its longest winning streak since 2017. The S&P 500 is now within striking distance of its all-time price high. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial hit its own new all-time price high.

Gains were primarily driven by investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. While the Fed didn’t change short-term interest rates as expected at their meeting last Wednesday, the Fed’s language at the FOMC meeting was interpreted by investors that they should expect even more interest rate cuts next year than they had previously expected. In turn, 10-Year Treasury yields moved below 4% last week. It was just late October that 10-year yields were knocking at 5%. That’s an impressive move in yields and the leading reason IMO for the stock market’s winning streak.

It wasn’t just lower rates that moved markets last week though. Economic data last week was also solid. For starters, Retail Sales strongly beat expectations, up +0.3% month-over-month (expectations were for -0.1%). In turn, with recent strong economic data, the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve is now predicting fourth quarter inflation-adjusted GDP to be +2.6% (that’s higher by a whopping 1.4% from the prior week’s reading of 1.2%).

With so many good tidings, investor sentiment continues to grow more bullish. For example, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is now the most net bullish it has been in over two years.

Not to be all bah humbug, but consider two things. First, when sentiment gets this bullish, the market typically generates below-average returns in the following months. Second, however, is that the market is expecting positive earnings growth in the year ahead, but also sharp interest rate cuts. Historically, we’ve never seen that combination in a calendar year before. Anything is possible, of course, but’s it’s not probable we’ll see both.

This coming week we get more key inflation data. The November release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is this Friday. Expectations are that inflation will continue to move lower. This week will also get updates on consumer confidence, housing, and the last update on 3Q GDP.


Add it all up...


Add it all up...


Stay invested. Stay diversified. Stay disciplined.


Download Weekly Wire


The views expressed herein are exclusively those of Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor, and are not meant as investment advice and are subject to change.

The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit

The CMT Program demonstrates mastery of a core body of knowledge of investment risk in portfolio management. The Chartered Market Technician® (CMT) designation marks the highest education within the discipline and is the preeminent designation for practitioners of technical analysis worldwide. To learn more about the CMT, visit

Think2perform’s Behavioral Financial Advice program integrates traditional finance practices with psychology and neuroscience to improve emotional competency and decision-making behavior that increases effective usage of the financial plan with clients. To obtain the Behavioral Financial Advisor (BFA) designation, participants must complete a self-directed course, which takes 20-30 hours to complete, and includes a mix of interactive exercises, videos and case studies. To learn more about the BFA, visit

Wealth Management services offered through Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor.

Compliance Code: 3 3 1 6 Brinker Capital December 18, 2023